Prospective Environmental Assessment of Citric Acid Production: An Integrated Framework of Ex-Ante LCA and Technological Learning

Citric acid (CA) necessitates the investigation of the environmental footprint from its production. This study compared three recovery technologies at different readiness levels, industrial calcium hydrogen salt precipitation–ion exchange (CHP-IE), pilot-scale solvent extraction (SE), and laboratory-scale bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BMED), to evaluate the life cycle environmental impacts of CA production when employing each recovery technology. SE and BMED were selected as emerging alternatives, as both are potential candidates to offer environmental or economic advantages over CHP-IE. By modeling the continuous improvement in the key production parameters as cumulative production experience increases, technological learning curves capture the efficiency gains that occur as technologies mature. This study pioneers an integrated ex-ante LCA framework that couples technological learning curves with energy transition scenarios to prospectively compare emerging CA recovery technologies against an industrialized process. Currently, CHP-IE shows the highest profit of 1078 CNY/t CA and the lowest global warming potential (GWP) of 1.79 t CO 2 eq/t CA, with the latter advantage projected to persist until 2030. By 2050, under deep decarbonization, BMED becomes the lowest-carbon option with 0.78 t CO 2 eq/t CA. Furthermore, with maize as the primary raw material, improved cultivation models in Northeast China reduce the environmental impacts of CA production by approximately 3% in acidification potential (AP) and eutrophication potential (EP), while diversified cropping systems in North China yield reductions of over 50% in these two categories. This paper provides an approach of comprehensive evaluation, supporting technology selection and green supply chain development in the CA industry.