Dynamic Thermal Modeling of Photovoltaic Systems’ Vulnerability Under Future Climate Scenarios: Implications for Central–Eastern Europe

Climate change poses significant threats to the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems through higher operating temperatures, yet most impact assessments rely on steady-state thermal models that neglect the effects of thermal inertia. This study applies a validated transient thermal model based on an ordinary differential equation to assess the evolution of PV cell temperature under future climate scenarios for Bucharest, Romania, a site representative for the continental climate prevailing across Central and Eastern Europe, thus providing a validated methodological framework transferable to the broader region. High-resolution meteorological predictions from EURO-CORDEX (0.11° resolution) provide temperature, solar irradiance, and wind speed data for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios across 2030s and 2050s time horizons. The dynamic modeling approach reveals moderate increases in thermal stress on PV systems under both climate scenarios, with increases in mean cell temperature of 0.6 to 1.2 °C. Also, an intensification of the inter-annual variability was observed, with implications for long-term reliability and uncertainty of the systems and their efficiency. The results quantify both thermal resilience and scenario-variable performance degradation and identify the temporal evolution of thermal vulnerability, providing essential guidance for climate-resilient solar energy planning and long-term investment strategies in the region.