Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity on Hainan Island (2001–2022)

As the net gain of carbon by plants after accounting for respiration, vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) plays a central role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, a systematic and quantitative analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of vegetation NPP on Hainan Island, a tropical region, is still lacking. Focusing on Hainan Island, this study employs an integrated approach—including the coefficient of variation, Mann–Kendall test, Hurst exponent, geographical detector, and PLS-SEM—to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation NPP and its underlying drivers from 2001 to 2022. The main conclusions as follows: (1) Vegetation NPP on Hainan Island showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2022, with a mean annual increase of 3.6 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 , and displayed a spatial pattern of decrease from the central-southern mountainous areas toward the coastal regions. (2) NPP changes were generally stable; historically, areas showing an increasing trend exceeded those with a decreasing trend by 30.55%. In the future, the predominant projected trends are “persistent decrease” and “increase to decrease,” which together account for over 80% of the total area. (3) Topography and climate were the dominant drivers of NPP spatial heterogeneity. Elevation had the strongest explanatory power, followed by evapotranspiration and temperature. A significant, nonlinear enhancement effect was observed in the interaction between any two factors. (4) Topographic, climatic, anthropogenic, and vegetation factors all exerted direct positive effects on vegetation NPP. Anthropogenic activities also indirectly promoted NPP by influencing pathways such as vegetation growth. The conclusions of this research provide support for the implementation and evaluation of land-use planning, afforestation projects, and ecological protection and restoration measures on Hainan Island.