Heatwave Effects of Emerging Industry Clustering in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

Under the dual pressures of global warming and high-density urbanization, extreme heatwaves have emerged as a critical ecological risk constraining the sustainable development of Chinese urban agglomerations. Based on multi-source remote sensing, meteorological, and economic data for 19 major urban agglomerations from 2014 to 2023, this study develops an emerging industrial agglomeration–energy activity–thermal environment response framework. Using XGBoost-SHAP interpretable machine learning and GeoSHAPLEY spatial decomposition, the nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous impacts of industrial agglomeration on heatwave characteristics are systematically quantified. Results indicate that the heatwave index increased from 0.619 to 0.637, with the model explaining 80.7 percent and 74.7 percent of variance in duration and frequency, respectively. Moreover, emerging industrial agglomeration ranks among the top contributors to both duration and frequency, explaining over 20 percent of duration variability and surpassing traditional industrial and socioeconomic factors. Heatwave duration and frequency exhibit nonlinear relationships. During early agglomeration, energy efficiency improvements generated marginal cooling of five to eight percent, whereas intensified agglomeration amplifies duration by over ten percent through energy-intensive activities and infrastructure heat islands. Meanwhile, green innovation at high agglomeration levels mitigates six to nine percent of the warming effect. In addition, spatial differentiation of industrial agglomeration, reflected by a Gini increase from 0.685 to 0.728 and inter-regional contribution around 62 percent, underpins heat risk heterogeneity. Furthermore, natural endowments, socioeconomic development, infrastructure, environmental regulation, and technological innovation significantly moderate these effects, with high-tech innovation attenuating heatwave amplification. Consequently, the thermal effects of industrial agglomeration follow a three-stage spatial evolution of warming, stabilization, and counter-regulation. These findings highlight that coordinated optimization of industrial spatial layout and green technological innovation is crucial for enhancing climate resilience and promoting low-carbon transformation in urban agglomerations.