Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Spatial Heterogeneity of Carbon Storage Under Alternative Scenarios in Coastal Zhejiang–Fujian–Guangdong, China (2000–2035)

Coastal provinces in eastern China are experiencing rapid urbanization that challenges ecosystem services and low-carbon development. In this study, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong Provinces were selected, and the influence of land use/land cover change (LUCC) on carbon storage and its spatial heterogeneity was quantified. LUCC datasets for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were compiled to describe land-use dynamics over 2000–2020. Carbon storage was estimated with the InVEST model. Land-use patterns for 2035 were simulated using the PLUS model under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and development priority. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) were then used to determine the key drivers of spatial variability in carbon storage. Between 2000 and 2020, farmland, forest, grassland, and unused land showed an overall decline, while water bodies and tt-up land expanded; together, these changes corresponded to a carbon-storage loss of 121.19 Tg. Carbon density exhibited pronounced spatial clustering, with higher values concentrated in mountainous and less urbanized areas; built-up expansion and forest degradation were the primary contributors to carbon loss. By 2035, total carbon storage is projected to decrease by 74.67 Tg under natural development and by 108.54 Tg under development priority, whereas ecological protection is projected to yield the smallest decline (35.71 Tg). These results underscore the importance of sustainable coastal land-use planning and integrated coastal zone management, which balance development and ecosystem services by prioritizing ecological protection, curbing built-up expansion, and promoting forest restoration. Such nature-based solutions can enhance carbon sequestration, strengthen climate resilience, and support China’s low-carbon transition toward its dual-carbon targets.