Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Analysis of Driving Factors in the Zhang–Wei River Basin, North China Plain

The Zhang–Wei River served as the Yongji Canal section of the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal in Chinese history, with its watershed rich in agricultural land and vegetation resources. Rapid urbanization in China has led to a reduction in the natural landscape base, alterations in landscape patterns, and increased habitat fragmentation within the basin. These changes have resulted in a diminished capacity landscape ecological regulation and an increase in landscape ecological risk levels. Therefore, exploring the mechanisms of landscape ecological risk evolution in the Zhang–Wei River Basin is of great theoretical and practical significance for optimizing land resource allocation in the North China Plain and promoting the restoration of ecological functions in the basin. This study utilizes land use data from the Zhang–Wei River Basin for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2023. Employing the ecological risk index model and the OPGD optimal discretization method, it reveals the spatiotemporal dynamics of landscape ecological risk evolution within the basin and examines the trends and driving factors of this spatiotemporal evolution. The research indicates the following findings: (1) The Zhang–Wei River Basin is primarily characterized by cultivated land and grassland land types. Between 2000 and 2023, both cultivated land and water body areas exhibited negative growth trends, decreasing by 3.6% and 0.05%, respectively. Cultivated land conversion shows the most significant change. The predominant conversion type was construction land. (2) Landscape ecological risks in the Zhang–Wei River Basin have progressively increased over time, exhibiting spatial clustering effects. High-risk zones are concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of the Wei River Basin, while low-risk zones are found in the northern and central–southern regions of the Zhang River Basin and the central section of the Wei River Basin. (3) Human activity intensity, land use change, annual precipitation, and population density are the primary single drivers of spatiotemporal differentiation in ecological risks within the Zhang–Wei River Basin. The interactions among these influencing factors within the basin have intensified annually. Notably, in 2020, the interaction between annual precipitation and the Enhanced Vegetation Index shifted from a dual-factor enhancement to a nonlinear enhancement. These results provide scientific basis for land security planning in the Zhang–Wei River Basin and offer valuable insights for safeguarding ecological security in the North China Plain.