Application of Various Statistical Indicators for Drought Analysis Based on Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study of Three Major Provinces of Turkey

Droughts are one of the most significant hazards that affect human life due to the imbalanced distribution of water across the world. Some parts of the world are usually dry, and meteorological conditions affect these regions rapidly. In water-scarce regions, droughts significantly put at risk socio-economic stability and food security, which may cause a major challenge to sustainable development. Therefore, a precise definition of drought and the identification of early warning signals can help to minimize the negative effects of droughts, especially in terms of agriculture. In this study, drought signals of three major agricultural provinces of Turkey, namely Antalya, Şanlıurfa, and Konya, were investigated. For this purpose, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) were computed for each province. A composite score index was proposed for the evaluation of multiple indices together. All datasets were obtained from remote-sensing products to ensure reproducibility. A dataset for the 2003–2023 period was used. The monthly precipitation derived from CHIRPS data and potential evaporation (PEV) data were obtained from the ERA5-Land. Therefore, the SPEI and EDDI values were calculated by using ERA5-Land PEV values but not the evapotranspiration. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for each province were obtained from the MODIS/Terra MOD13A3 v061. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope were applied to the computed time series to detect the trends. As a result, the dry and wet periods were identified for each province individually. The VCI was found to have an increasing trend for all tested provinces. Overall, from a future perspective, the most vulnerable province in terms of meteorological drought was indicated to be Antalya.