Multistation VAR-Based Analysis of Precipitation, Temperature, and Lake Level Interactions in the Lake Van Basin, Türkiye

Closed-basin lakes are highly sensitive to climatic variability, yet for the Lake Van Basin (Türkiye), the dynamic and spatially heterogeneous linkages among atmospheric drivers and lake-level changes (particularly their lag structure and predictive directionality) remain insufficiently quantified in a unified multivariate setting. This study examines how temperature and precipitation jointly influence hydrological behavior in the Lake Van Basin using a multi-station Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. By integrating long-term observations from multiple meteorological stations, the analysis explicitly captures the spatial heterogeneity that characterizes this complex endorheic system and provides a consistent basis for comparing station-specific dynamics. The results show strong persistence in lake-level dynamics across specifications, with lagged lake-level coefficients of 0.2595 to 0.3685 ( p < 0.01), indicating a buffered endorheic response. Temperature exhibits a highly consistent seasonal dependence across stations, reflected by a uniformly negative and significant four-month temperature lag in the temperature equations (−0.34 to −0.42, p < 0.01). Granger-causality tests further indicate robust bidirectional coupling between temperature and precipitation in all station specifications ( p < 0.01 and typically p ≤ 0.05), while climate-to-lake-level linkages remain spatially heterogeneous but are statistically supported across both Tatvan-based and Gevas-based specifications (Tatvan-Tatvan: p < 0.01 for both climate variables; Tatvan-Ahlat: temperature p = 0.000; Gevas-Van, Gevas-Ercis, and Gevas-Muradiye: temperature p = 0.000 and precipitation p = 0.013, 0.008, and 0.015, respectively). Distinct station-level patterns further demonstrate that topographical differences modulate the strength and direction of climate–hydrology linkages across the basin. By providing a coherent, causally consistent understanding of these interactions and explicitly incorporating season-specific VAR and Granger-causality evidence, this study offers a transferable methodological framework for analyzing climate-sensitive lake systems and highlights the need to incorporate temperature-driven processes into water-management and climate-adaptation strategies in endorheic basins.