Energy Planning Under Climate Pressure in Ecuador: Insights from the 2023–2024 Crisis Using LEAP Modeling

Ecuador’s energy system, heavily reliant on hydropower, is increasingly exposed to climate-related disruptions. The 2023–2024 crisis triggered by a historic drought revealed critical structural weaknesses. During this period, the government implemented scheduled electricity rationing of up to 14 h per day in major cities and industrial zones. The blackouts led to cascading economic and social impacts, with an estimated economic toll of USD 2 billion from the energy crisis, equivalent to 2% of Ecuadorian GDP. Hence, this study aims to apply the LEAP model to quantitatively simulate demand, supply, and policy outcomes under two long-term scenarios through 2050. The findings underscore the urgent need for energy diversification, efficiency improvements, and decarbonization of the transport sector to enhance system resilience. The results offer actionable insights for building a more resilient and low-carbon energy future in Ecuador and in similar hydropower-dependent economies. Additionally, the analysis highlights that institutional reforms, technological modernization, and energy integration are essential to mitigating long-term climate risks. By incorporating scenario-based projections, this study provides evidence to guide public policy and investment decisions. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on sustainable energy transitions in vulnerable economies under climate stress.