Deciphering the Impact of the Digital Economy on Tourism Transportation Carbon Emissions in China: Mechanisms and Threshold Effects

Does the rapid expansion of the digital economy ultimately reduce or increase carbon emissions in tourism transportation? Its impact remains ambivalent, presenting both clear opportunities and unforeseen challenges. This study hypothesizes that while the digital economy increases total carbon emissions by expanding the scale of travel and driving up private car ownership, it concurrently reduces emission intensity. This study estimates tourism transportation carbon emissions across 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2021) using a bottom-up approach. By integrating fixed-effects, mediation, and threshold models, it systematically examines the digital economy’s direct, mechanistic, and nonlinear impacts on emission dynamics. The empirical findings provide strong support for initial hypotheses. Further, the threshold tests uncover the tipping points in how threshold variables influence tourism transportation carbon emissions. The effect of the digital economy transitions from accelerating to attenuating emission growth once these boundaries are crossed, revealing a shift from a scale-driven regime to an efficiency-driven equilibrium. These findings suggest that well-calibrated policies can harness digitalization to foster low-carbon transformation. Recommended measures include implementing tiered subsidy schemes for low-emission vehicles and fostering cross-regional collaboration to establish carbon-inclusive platforms.