Measurement, Dynamic Evolution, and Influencing Factors of Total Factor Productivity in Japan’s Beef Cattle Industry

Total factor productivity (TFP) serves as the primary driver of high-quality development and a key determinant for the sustainable growth of Japan’s beef cattle industry. This study analyzes panel data from nine agricultural regions in Japan, covering the period from 2004 to 2022, and applies the Malmquist-Luenberger index model to measure and decompose TFP in the sector. It utilizes various methods, including the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and Markov chains, to examine regional disparities and dynamic changes. Additionally, the study applies the geographic detector and spatial Durbin model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors. The results show that: (1) From 2004 to 2022, TFP in Japan’s beef cattle industry steadily declined, accompanied by growing regional imbalances. The Tokai region was the only area to experience positive TFP growth, while other regions generally saw declines. (2) The spatial disparity in TFP growth has increased, with an intensified imbalance and a widening gap between regions. TFP distribution is becoming more “multipolar,” with considerable dynamic mobility. (3) TFP exhibits a general positive spatial correlation. Geographic detector analysis reveals that factors such as the number of agricultural research and development personnel, fiscal support, industrial agglomeration, feed production capacity, and labor productivity are the key drivers behind spatial TFP differentiation, reflecting a complex interplay of multidimensional factors. (4) Industrial agglomeration, fiscal support, and the number of agricultural R&D personnel exhibit significant spatial positive spillover effects, indicating that coordinated regional progress is essential for fostering the sustainable and healthy development of the beef cattle industry. This study provides theoretical and empirical support for the sustainable development of Japan’s beef cattle industry and offers policy recommendations to enhance the economic growth quality of the beef cattle industries in both Japan and China.