A Hybrid AE-SDGC-Autoformer Model for Short-Term Runoff Forecasting and Sustainable Water Resource Management

Runoff forecasting is an essential application in the management of water resources and sustainable development. In practice, there are limitations in the forecast results because of factors such as data unavailability, noise interference, and spatiotemporal variation in multi-site data. To overcome the limitations, this paper proposes a hybrid forecast model based on Autoencoder (AE), Sparsified Dynamic Graph Convolution (SDGC), and Autoformer. The AE cleans noise and sharpens feature representation, the SDGC constructs dynamic adjacency matrices via the Multidimensional Dynamic Time Warping (MDTW) and sparsifies with a parameterized Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to capture time-varying spatial correlations among stations, and the Autoformer decomposes features to model long-term nonlinear runoff trends through its autocorrelation mechanism. The experiment was carried out in six locations in the southeastern part of Guizhou province during the wet and dry periods and was contrasted with different mainstream models and supplemented with hydrological mechanism consistency analysis. Experimental results show that the hybrid model performs better than all the other models. In the short-term runoff simulation at XingHua Station during the wet season, NSE attains the maximum value of 0.891, with RMSE decreased by 6.5% to 24.1% and MAE by 20.2% to 35.5%. This model provides accurate runoff data to support flood early warning, dry-season water scheduling, and ecological flow protection, offering a reliable tool for sustainable water resource management in complex karst basins.