The Impact of Digital Innovation on Carbon Productivity: An Empirical Study Based on Spatial Spillover Effects

Investigating the relationship between digital innovation and carbon productivity, along with its underlying mechanisms, is important for advancing regional low-carbon, sustainable development. In this study, panel data spanning 2012 to 2022 from 30 provincial-level regions in China are analyzed utilizing mediation analysis and spatial Durbin models to systematically examine the transmission pathways, heterogeneous characteristics, and impact of digital innovation on carbon productivity. The findings reveal the following: (1) Digital innovation significantly enhances carbon productivity, exhibiting robust spatial spillover effects. (2) Spatial mediation analysis reveals that digital innovation enhances carbon productivity through three pathways—industrial structure upgrading, energy consumption efficiency, and technological progress—each exhibiting both local transmission and cross-regional spillover characteristics. (3) Regional heterogeneity analysis indicates that digital innovation exerts more substantial cross-regional spillover effects on carbon productivity in central and western regions than in eastern regions. Temporal heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of digital innovation on enhancing carbon productivity increased significantly after 2018. This study reveals the intrinsic logic and constraints governing digital innovation’s impact on carbon productivity, providing policymakers with a reference for formulating strategies to coordinate the development of digital and green economies.