Temperature Anomaly and Residential Mobility: Spatial Patterns, Tipping Points, and Implications for Sustainable Adaptation

Few studies examine how slow-onset climate change interacts with local structural conditions to shape internal migration and long-term community sustainability. Using 2021 county-to-county migration data for the contiguous United States, this study analyzes spatial variation in in-migration, out-migration, and net migration rates in relation to temperature anomalies and place-based socioeconomic characteristics. Spatial regression results reveal no uniform relationship between recent temperature anomalies and migration outcomes. Instead, migration patterns are more strongly associated with urban status, housing market conditions, population composition, and long-run average climate. In some counties, higher temperature anomalies are associated with reduced out-migration, suggesting constrained mobility where economic and housing conditions limit relocation options. By contrast, extreme anomalies and greater environmental vulnerability are linked to lower in-migration, indicating diminished destination attractiveness. Overall, the findings suggest that internal migration responses to climate stress are mediated by local structural conditions rather than driven by temperature change alone, underscoring the importance of equitable adaption policies and place-based resilience strategies for sustainable regional development.