The Socioeconomic Resilience Effects of Population Aging in the Context of Population Shrinkage: Evidence from the Three Northeastern Provinces of China

Against the backdrop of global demographic transition and widening regional disparities, population shrinkage and population aging have become critical constraints on regional development, posing severe challenges to the socioeconomic resilience of shrinking areas. Taking China’s three northeastern provinces as the study area, this paper investigates the impacts of population aging on county-level socioeconomic resilience and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Based on population census and socioeconomic data from 143 counties in Northeast China during 2010–2020, an evaluation index system of socioeconomic resilience is constructed using the entropy weight method. Grey relational analysis, Tobit regression models, and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) are employed to conduct empirical tests. The results indicate that most counties simultaneously experience population decline and deep aging, and their interaction forms an intensified negative feedback mechanism that constrains the improvement of socioeconomic resilience. Compared with other shrinking regions in China—such as selected counties in the Yangtze River Delta and resource-rich counties in central and western China—Northeast China is distinguished by a unique set of compounded pressures, driven by the simultaneous and mutually reinforcing trends of sustained population decline and deep aging. Population aging exhibits a strong correlation with socioeconomic resilience across all dimensions, with the most pronounced association observed in transformation capacity. Population density also plays an important role, although its correlation strength is relatively weaker. Tobit regression results further confirm that population aging significantly suppresses socioeconomic resilience, whereas population density exerts a positive effect, with notable differences across various types of shrinking counties. GTWR analysis reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of these factors on socioeconomic resilience. Overall, this study provides robust empirical evidence for formulating targeted policies and enhancing sustainable development capacity in shrinking and aging regions.