Evolution and Drivers of the Anabranching Lower North River, Pearl River Basin, China: Insights from Remote Sensing and Hydrological Observations During 1990–2022

The Lower North River (LNR) exhibits a distinctive anabranching pattern in the Pearl River Basin, China. However, research has predominantly focused on vertical channel adjustments relying on in situ measurements, while the large-scale spatiotemporal dynamics of the anabranching planform have received limited attention. To address this gap, this study quantified the evolution of the anabranching planform from 1990 to 2022 using remote sensing images, focusing on anabranching intensity and island morphology, and analyzed driving factors using hydrological observations. Results revealed three evolutionary phases driven by shifting dominance of human interventions. During the first phase (1990–2004), the LNR experienced a moderate decline in anabranching intensity and widespread shrinkage of river islands, primarily attributed to sediment starvation induced by upstream dams. In the second phase (2004–2013), the decline in anabranching intensity accelerated and the proportion of expanding islands increased, driven by unregulated sand mining and channel regulation. In the third phase (2013–2022), the rapid decline in anabranching intensity decelerated and the islands shifted from a shrinkage-dominated to a stable-dominated state following the implementation of strict mining management and the physical confinement imposed by engineering structures. These findings reveal distinct morphological responses of the LNR to flow–sediment regimes and anthropogenic physical interventions, offering insights into the sustainable management of large anabranching rivers worldwide in the Anthropocene.