How Green Finance Drives New Quality Productivity in China’s Energy Sector

As a key mechanism for guiding capital flows into green and low-carbon sectors, green finance plays a significant role in supporting China’s “dual carbon” strategy and driving the high-quality development of its energy system. This research investigates the mechanisms and effects through which green finance influences new-quality productivity in the energy sector. Based on Chinese provincial panel data spanning 2012–2022, we apply fixed-effects models, mediation effect tests, and a threshold regression model to empirically analyze the transmission channels, nonlinear features, and regional heterogeneities of this influence. The findings indicate the following: (1) Green finance significantly drives the development of new-quality productivity in the energy sector, and this conclusion holds robust after a series of robustness tests. (2) The primary transmission channels operate by promoting technological innovation and enhancing the level of foreign trade openness. (3) The impact presents nonlinear characteristics: the positive effect of green finance weakens when the level of technological innovation is excessively low or when foreign trade openness is overly high. (4) Significant heterogeneity is observed, with a more pronounced promotional effect in regions with weaker financial endowment, while the effect is relatively limited in regions with stronger financial endowment. Accordingly, this research proposes optimizing the green financial system and formulating differentiated regional policies to synergistically advance the development of new-quality productive forces in energy.