New Quality Productive Forces and Sustainable Green Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Analysis of Their Interactive Linkages

Amidst the global drive toward sustainable development, this study responds to China’s pressing imperative for a green and low-carbon transition. The research begins by theoretically examining the viability and intrinsic mechanisms through which the cultivation of new-pattern productive forces can foster environmentally sound, high-quality economic growth. Subsequently, by leveraging panel data from 30 Chinese provinces covering the period 2011–2023, a two-way fixed-effects model is deployed to empirically assess the linkage between new-pattern productive forces and green total factor productivity (GTFP). The empirical results demonstrate the following: (1) New-pattern productive forces exert a statistically significant positive influence on GTFP—a finding that withstands multiple robustness checks; (2) Heterogeneity tests reveal that the GTFP-enhancing effect is pronounced in provinces with relatively low carbon intensity, whereas it remains insignificant in high-carbon-intensity regions; (3) Mechanism analysis identifies green technology innovation as a pivotal mediator in the process through which new-pattern productivity improves GTFP; (4) A non-linear, dual-threshold effect characterizes the relationship, wherein the GTFP-promoting impact of new-pattern productive forces strengthens progressively as the development level of green finance crosses successive thresholds. Collectively, these insights advance the understanding of how new-pattern productive forces enable GTFP gains, furnish novel evidence for steering high-quality economic development, and thereby support the broader global sustainability agenda.