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Potential Pathways and Solutions to Acute Food System Crisis in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Bridle

    (Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK)

  • Elta Smith

    (Independent Researcher, Crickhowell NP8 1HF, UK)

  • Aled Jones

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK)

  • Pete Falloon

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
    School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1QU, UK)

  • Vanessa Pilley

    (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Nobel House, Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, UK)

  • Saher Hasnain

    (Department of People and Technology, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, 02, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark)

  • Lucy Stanbrough

    (WTW, 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK)

  • Christina Vogel

    (Centre for Food Policy, City St George’s, University of London, London EC1V 0HB, UK)

  • Caitlin Douglas

    (Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2B 4PA, UK)

  • Bob Doherty

    (School for Business and Society, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK)

  • Philip Tovey

    (Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA), Washington, DC 20006, USA
    School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Earley, Reading RG6 6AS, UK)

  • Pete Smith

    (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK)

  • Simon Pearson

    (Lincoln Institute for Agri-Food Technology, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK)

  • S. J. Beard

    (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK)

  • Neil Ward

    (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK)

  • Dan Crossley

    (Food Ethics Council, Impact Hub London Kings Cross, 34b York Way, London N1 9AB, UK)

  • H. Charles J. Godfray

    (Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK)

  • Monika Zurek

    (Department of People and Technology, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, 02, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, UK)

  • Julie Pierce

    (Food Standards Agency, Foss House, Kings Pool, 1-2 Peasholme Green, York Y01 7PR, UK)

  • Dominic Watters

    (Food is Care CIC, 16 City View, Canterbury CT2 8PT, UK
    School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

  • Davide Natalini

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK)

  • Tim Benton

    (Chatham House, 10 St James Square, London SW1Y 4LE, UK
    School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9AT, UK)

  • Riaz Bhunnoo

    (Global Food Security Programme, Polaris House, Swindon SN2 1UH, UK)

  • Ben Dare

    (Independent, c/o Food Climate Society Office Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK)

  • Juan Pablo Cordero

    (Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK)

  • Molly Watson

    (Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK)

  • Barnaby Coupe

    (The Wildlife Trusts, The Kiln, Mather Road, Newark NG24 1WT, UK)

  • Judith Batchelar

    (Food Matters International, Wern Cottage, Mortimer Lane, Mortimer, Reading RG7 3PP, UK)

  • Ella Taylor

    (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK)

  • John Ingram

    (Department of People and Technology, Roskilde University, Universitetsvej 1, 02, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark)

  • Jude Irons

    (Independent, c/o Food Climate Society Office Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK)

  • Tim Lang

    (Centre for Food Policy, City St George’s, University of London, London EC1V 0HB, UK)

  • Tom Macmillan

    (Centre for Effective Innovation in Agriculture, Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester, Gloucestershire GL7 6JS, UK)

  • Daniel Morton

    (Argans Ltd., Plymouth Science Park, 1 Davy Road, Plymouth PL6 8BX, UK)

  • Sue Pritchard

    (The Food, Farming and Countryside Commission, 1-3 Gloucester Road, Bristol BS7 8AA, UK)

  • Angelina Sanderson Bellamy

    (School of Applied Sciences, University of the West of England (UWE), Bristol BS16 1QY, UK)

  • Eike Sindlinger

    (Arup, 8 Fitzroy Street, London W1T 4BJ, UK)

  • Alec Taylor

    (Oceana C/O Bates Wells & Braithwaite, 10 Queen Street Place, London EC4R 1BE, UK)

  • Kerry Whiteside

    (Samworth Brothers, 1 Samworth Way, Melton Mowbray LE13 1GA, UK)

Abstract

There is increasing concern in many advanced economies about the risks of disruption and crises in agri-food systems. Government departments and non-governmental organisations are working to identify and understand specific risks but struggle to take broad, holistic perspectives and therefore underestimate the potential for civil unrest. In the interests of helping move from understanding to action, we convened a group of experts through a Delphi process to map out potential pathways to acute UK food system crises and identify interventions that would build resilience and sustainability. To this end, we consulted 31 experts, carrying out 15 expert interviews, followed by three surveys and two workshops with a further 16 experts. The experts highlighted the many existing chronic issues creating a tinderbox for an acute risk to lead to a food crisis in the UK. These chronic issues include climate change, poor policy implementation, rising inequality, food supply chain consolidation and the risks from just-in-time supply of food. They voted to include three acute triggers—(a) cyber-attack, (b) a major extreme weather event and (c) a major new international conflict—and described how any combination of these could lead to (d) a UK food availability and/or price shock that could result in widespread fear of unsafe or inadequate food, leading to violence. A total of 7 system-wide interventions were prioritised to help address these pathway elements together and build sustainability, and a further 21 were identified to address elements individually.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Bridle & Elta Smith & Aled Jones & Pete Falloon & Vanessa Pilley & Saher Hasnain & Lucy Stanbrough & Christina Vogel & Caitlin Douglas & Bob Doherty & Philip Tovey & Pete Smith & Simon Pearson &, 2026. "Potential Pathways and Solutions to Acute Food System Crisis in the UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-26, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:18:y:2026:i:3:p:1342-:d:1851370
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