Agro-Exports and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Lambayeque, Peru (2010–2023)

The present study examined the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in Lambayeque, Peru, during the period 2010–2023. An ordinary least squares (OLS) econometric model was employed to analyze the relationship between gross value added (GVA) and key macroeconomic variables, including agricultural exports, private investment, real wages, terms of trade, and the real multilateral exchange rate. The findings indicate that the model possesses considerable explanatory power (R 2 = 0.973) and that agricultural exports exert a positive and significant influence on regional GVA. In addition, private investment and real wages demonstrate positive elasticities, while terms of trade exhibit a negative relationship with regional economic growth. This highlights Lambayeque’s vulnerability to external price shocks. The study thus underscores the pivotal role of the Olmos Project, which has been instrumental in transforming arid land into fruitful agricultural zones through the implementation of an irrigation system encompassing over 22,000 hectares. This initiative has not only augmented agricultural exports, accounting for an impressive 90% of Lambayeque’s supply, but also contributed significantly to regional economic development by supporting employment generation and poverty reduction. Nevertheless, the presence of negative terms of trade indicates that the regional economy exhibits structural vulnerability in the face of external shocks. Notwithstanding the intrinsic limitations of regional, trade, and macroeconomic statistics, an understanding of the correlation between agro-exports and economic growth in a paradigmatic region of northern Peru provides substantial evidence for formulating policies to enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of the agro-export model.