Ecological Vulnerability Assessment in Hubei Province, China: Pressure–State–Response (PSR) Modeling and Driving Factor Analysis from 2000 to 2023

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment is paramount for local environmental stability and lasting economic progress. This study selects Hubei Province as the research area, applying multi-source spatiotemporal datasets spanning the period 2000–2023. A pressure–state–response (PSR) framework, incorporating 14 distinct indicators, was developed. The selection criteria for these indicators adhered to principles of scientific rigor, all-encompassing scope, statistical representativeness, and practical applicability. The chosen indicators effectively encompass natural, anthropogenic, and socio-economic drivers, aligning with the specific ecological attributes and key vulnerability factors pertinent to Hubei Province. The analytic network process (ANP) method and entropy weighting (EW) method were integrated to ascertain comprehensive weights, thereby computing the ecological vulnerability index (EVI). In the meantime, we analyzed temporal and spatial EVI shifts. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, the geodetic detector, the Theil–Sen median, the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Grey–Markov model were employed to elucidate spatial distribution, driving factors, and future trends. Results indicate that Hubei Province exhibited mild ecological vulnerability from 2000 to 2023, but with a notable deteriorating trend: extreme vulnerability areas expanded from 0.34% to 0.94%, while moderate and severe vulnerability zones also increased. Eastern regions demonstrate elevated vulnerability, but they were lower in the west, correlating with human activity intensity. The global Moran’s I index ranged from 0.8579 to 0.8725, signifying a significant positive spatial correlation of ecological vulnerability, with the highly vulnerable areas concentrated in regions with intense human activities, while the less vulnerable areas are located in ecologically intact areas. Habitat quality index and carbon sinks emerged as key drivers, possibly stemming from the forest–wetland composite ecosystem’s high dependence on water conservation, biodiversity maintenance, and carbon storage functions. Future projections based on Grey–Markov models indicate that ecological fragility in Hubei Province will exhibit an upward trend, with ecological conservation pressures continuing to intensify. This research offers a preliminary reference basis of grounds for ecological zoning, as well as sustainable regional development in Hubei Province, while also providing a theoretical and practical framework for constructing an ecological security pattern within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and facilitating ecological governance in analogous river basins globally, thereby contributing to regional sustainable development goals.