Analysis of the Impact of Road Infrastructure and Economic and Transport Factors on Road Safety in Poland

Road safety remains a critical concern in Poland, where infrastructure development, motorization, urban density, and public transport patterns all influence traffic accident occurrence. This study examines road accidents over the period 2010–2024, using official statistical data from the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) and national transport databases. The study examines how road infrastructure, vehicle ownership, population density, and public transport usage relate to traffic accidents in Poland between 2010 and 2024. A log-linear regression model was applied to estimate the elasticities of each factor, allowing interpretation of the expected percentage change in accidents associated with a 1% change in the explanatory variables. The results show that increased density of paved roads and higher urban population density are associated with higher accident numbers, while the expansion of expressways and motorways significantly is associated with lower accident numbers. Greater motorization also increases accident risk, whereas higher public transport usage has a modest mitigating effect. Bus and trolleybus operations slightly increase exposure, while tram mileage shows a negligible decrease in accidents. Results show that paved road density and urban density tend to increase accidents, while expressways reduce them. Policy implications include the importance of balancing infrastructure development with traffic management, promoting public transport, and addressing urban density to reduce accident risk. The study highlights the need for integrated approaches to improve road safety and provides a quantitative basis for evidence-informed transportation planning.