The Impact of Multidimensional Risk Factors on Economic Growth as a Proxy for Sustainable Development Goals in Saudi Arabia: Alignment with Saudi Vision 2030

This research experimentally investigates the association between multidimensional risk factors and economic growth, quantified by GDP as a partial indicator of advancement towards economically relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This research experimentally investigates the correlation between multidimensional risk variables and economic growth, quantified by GDP as a partial indicator of advancement towards economically relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Saudi Arabia, particularly in alignment with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030. This study utilizes annual data from 1990 to 2024 and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine the short-run and long-run relationships between economic growth, as measured by GDP, and five key risk dimensions: governance effectiveness, financial development, environmental pressure, human capital, and oil price volatility, which act as proxies for risk dimensions. The main contribution of this study is the integration of these governance, financial, environmental, human capital, and oil price risk factors into a single ARDL framework for Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2024, using GDP growth as a proxy for progress toward SDGs within the Saudi Vision 2030 context, addressing gaps in prior studies that focus on individual determinants. The empirical evidence indicates a long-term cointegration relationship among the variables. Our findings indicate that government effectiveness and investment in human capital are important positive factors associated with long-term economic growth, thereby validating the importance of institutional improvements and educational expenditures. In contrast, fluctuations in oil prices and environmental pressures are linked to adverse association, highlighting issues related to resource dependency and ecological degradation. Financial development exhibits a negative long-run association, indicating potential inefficiencies or diminishing returns in loan distribution. The study offers essential policy recommendations, such as expediting digital governance reforms, allocating financial resources to non-oil SMEs (SDG 8), aligning educational curricula with labor market demands, and implementing stricter environmental regulations to separate economic growth from emissions.