Environmental Flow Regimes Shape Spawning Habitat Suitability for Four Carps in the Pearl River, China

The construction of reservoirs has undeniably provided numerous conveniences and benefits to human societies. However, it has also markedly altered downstream flow regimes, leading to essential fish habitat loss that directly undermines the ecosystem services provided by fish populations, thereby jeopardizing the long-term sustainability of fishery resources. Existing assessments of spawning suitability largely concentrate on static characteristics of available spawning grounds, while the dynamics of habitat suitability migration and contraction in response to changing environmental flows remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we classified hydrological years into wet, flat, and dry categories to reflect the varying environmental flow requirements during the fish-spawning period. Using the Mike21 hydraulic model together with a spatial suitability analysis for spawning habitats, we quantified spawning ground suitability from both temporal and spatial perspectives. Taking the four major Chinese carps (FMCC) and the Dongta spawning ground in the Pearl River as a case study, our findings reveal that the proportion of highly suitable habitats closely tracks the environmental-flow trajectories. Throughout the FMCC spawning period, the spatial pattern of high suitability zones undergoes a marked migration in response to flow variations across wet, flat, and dry years, consistently shifting upstream. Specifically, as discharge rises from low-flow to high-flow events, the most suitable areas move from downstream deep-pool sections toward upstream shallow riffle zones, which is crucial for the sustainable development of fishery resources.