Towards a Circular Economy Scheme in Jordan: Environmental and Socio-Economic Appraisal of Municipal Solid Waste Recycling Pathways

The transition toward a circular economy (CE) is progressively recognized as a strategic pathway to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability. Municipal solid waste management in Jordan remains mostly linear, with over 90% of the generated waste disposed of in landfills and open dumpsites. This study critically examines the prospects of adopting CE principles in Jordan’s waste sector by evaluating current practices, policy frameworks, and potential recycling pathways. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining quantitative modeling with qualitative insights from stakeholders and public surveys. Three recycling scenarios were assessed against the baseline scenario: 25%, 50%, and 75% waste recovery by 2034. The U.S. EPA WARM model was used to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy savings. It was inferred that the net avoided emissions (against the baseline) for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 are 14.5%, 29.0%, and 44%, respectively, with paper/cardboard contributing most to avoided emissions. Nonetheless, only Scenarios 2 and 3 were deemed environmentally sustainable, as their projected net GHG emissions for 2034 were lower than those recorded in the base year. Socio-economic analysis identified the major barriers as limited public awareness and participation, infrastructural gaps, and financial and institutional constraints. The analysis further reveals that despite the relatively high capital and operating costs associated with advancing toward CE in waste management, the long-term environmental and socio-economic gains are expected to outweigh the associated costs, particularly in terms of avoided GHG emissions and reduced landfill dependency.