Aligning Supply and Demand: The Evolution of Community Public Sports Facilities in Shanghai, China

Community public sport facilities are core carriers of the national fitness public service system, with their supply–demand alignment directly linked to megacity governance efficiency and residents’ well-being. To address structural issues, such as “human–land imbalance” in facility layout, this study uses the 2010–2024 panel data from Shanghai’s 16 districts, applies supply–demand equilibrium theory, and integrates quantitative methods to analyze spatio-temporal supply–demand coupling and identify key influencing factors. The study yields four key findings: (1) The spatial distribution of facilities and population demonstrates a differentiated evolutionary trajectory marked by “central dispersion and suburban stability”. (2) Supply–demand alignment has continuously improved, as evidenced by the increase in coordinated administrative districts from six to thirteen. Nonetheless, the distance between sports facilities and population centers widened, suggesting that spatial adaptation remains incomplete. (3) Urban population growth exerts a significant positive impact on facility supply. Elasticity coefficients are generally high in suburban areas, while negative elasticity is detected in some central urban areas due to population outflow. (4) Facility construction intensity and residential activity intensity are core driving factors, with economic conditions, transportation infrastructure, and housing prices acting as key supporting factors. This study overcomes traditional aggregate-quantity research limitations, reveals megacity facility supply–demand “spatial mismatch” dynamics, and provides a scientific basis for targeted public sports facility layout and refined governance.