A Numerical Modeling Framework for Assessing Hydrodynamic Risks to Support Sustainable Port Development: Application to Extreme Storm and Tide Scenarios Within Takoradi Port Master Plan

Sustainable port development in coastal regions necessitates robust frameworks for quantifying hydrodynamic risks under climate change. To bridge the gap between generic guidelines and site-specific resilience planning, this study proposes and applies a numerical modeling-based risk assessment framework. Within the context of the Port Master Plan, the framework is applied to the critical case of Takoradi Port in West Africa, employing a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate current fields under three current regimes, “Normal”, “Stronger”, and “Estimated Extreme” scenarios, for the first time. The model quantifies key hydrologic parameters such as current velocity and direction in critical zones (the approach channel, port basin, and berths), providing actionable data for the Port Master Plan. Key new findings include the following: (1) Northeastward surface currents, driven by the southwest monsoon, dominate the study area; breakwater sheltering creates a prominent circulation zone north of the port entrance. (2) Under extreme conditions, the approach channel exhibits amplified currents (0.3–0.7 m/s), while inner port areas maintain stable conditions (<0.1 m/s). (3) A stark spatial differentiation in designed current velocities for 2–100 years return periods, where the 100-year extreme current velocity in the external approach channel (0.87 m/s at P1) exceeds the range in the internal zones (0.01–0.15 m/s) by approximately 5 to 86 times. The study validates the framework’s utility in assessing hydrodynamic risks. By integrating numerical simulation with risk assessment, this work provides a scalable methodological contribution that can be adapted to other port environments, directly supporting the global pursuit of sustainable and resilient ports.