Dynamic Impacts of Rail Transit Investment on Regional Economic Development: A Spatial-System Dynamics Analysis of the Jiangsu Yangtze River City Cluster

The Jiangsu Yangtze River city cluster is a key growth pole of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, yet substantial disparities in development levels persist across cities, and the role of rail transit investment in fostering regional economic coordination remains insufficiently understood. This study aims to reveal the dynamic mechanisms through which railway transportation investment influences regional economic growth via population migration and service industry agglomeration, and to quantify the economic multiplier effects under different investment scenarios. Considering the close economic linkages among cities, spatial autocorrelation analysis is applied to assess intercity economic dependence, which provides the basis for developing a system dynamics model that links the rail transit system with the regional economy. Using data from eight core cities over the period 2014–2023, the model is employed to simulate long-term economic responses under different investment scenarios. The results indicate that increasing the rail transit investment ratio from 0.0077 to 0.02 is associated with an estimated 13.2% increase in regional GDP by 2030, with a corresponding economic multiplier of approximately 1.8, while simulation errors remain within 4.1–16.2% compared with historical data. The findings suggest that rail transit investment promotes regional growth through improved accessibility, factor agglomeration, and industrial upgrading, and that coordinated planning at the urban agglomeration scale is more effective than isolated city-level strategies. By integrating spatial dependence analysis with system dynamics modeling, this study offers a dynamic perspective on the regional economic impacts of rail transit investment.