Toward High-Quality and Sustainable Employment: Spatial Evolution and Driving Factors of Precarious Labor Market in China

Amid the normalization of flexible employment, labor dispatch, as a form of non-standard employment, has become an important component of China’s precarious labor market (PLM). Based on registration data of labor dispatch firms from 2002 to 2022, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution and evolutionary patterns of China’s PLM, using spatial autocorrelation, kernel density estimation, and Gini coefficient methods. Furthermore, it explores its driving mechanisms through a panel negative binomial regression model. The results show that (i) over the past two decades, China’s PLM has undergone four stages: initiation, acceleration, expansion, and adjustment. (ii) Spatially, it has evolved along the trend of “reinforced clustering with concurrent diffusion,” expanding from first-tier cities in eastern China to second- and third-tier cities in central and western China. (iii) Industrial upgrading, market competition, and the overall level of urban development have significantly promoted the growth of the PLM, while improvements in accessibility, proportion of migrant population, and public service provision have somewhat restrained its expansion. Overall, China’s PLM demonstrates both growth potential and structural vulnerability under institutional constraints and external shocks, offering valuable spatial insights for forging sustainable, high-quality employment and coordinated regional development.