Impact of Tropical Climate Anomalies on Land Cover Changes in Sumatra’s Peatlands, Indonesia

Peatlands play a critical role in global and regional climate regulation by functioning as long-term carbon sinks, regulating hydrology, and modulating land–atmosphere energy exchange. Intact peat ecosystems store large amounts of organic carbon and stabilize local climate through high water retention and evapotranspiration, whereas peatland degradation disrupts these functions and can transform peatlands into significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions and climate extremes such as drought and fire. Indonesia contains approximately 13.6–40.5 Gt of carbon, around 40% of which is stored on the island of Sumatra. However, tropical peatlands in this region are highly vulnerable to climate anomalies and land-use change. This study investigates the impacts of major climate anomalies—specifically El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events in 1997/1998, 2015/2016, and 2019—on peatland cover change across South Sumatra, Jambi, Riau, and the Riau Islands. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor imagery were analyzed using a Random Forest machine learning classification approach. Climate anomaly periods were identified using El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD indices from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. To enhance classification accuracy and detect vegetation and hydrological stress, spectral indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI) were integrated. The results show classification accuracies of 89–92%, with kappa values of 0.85–0.90. The 2015/2016 El Niño caused the most severe peatland degradation (>51%), followed by the 1997/1998 El Niño (23–38%), while impacts from the 2019 pIOD were comparatively limited. These findings emphasize the importance of peatlands in climate regulation and highlight the need for climate-informed monitoring and management strategies to mitigate peatland degradation and associated climate risks.