Constructing Ecological Security Patterns Using Remote Sensing Ecological Index Multi-Scenario Simulation and Circuit Theory: A Case Study of Xishuangbanna, a Border City

Driven by the globalization tide, urbanization and cross-border economic cooperation have intensified challenges to ecological conservation, with border regions increasingly confronting irreversible habitat degradation risks. As a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot, Xishuangbanna acts as a strategic hub for cross-border ecological security between China and Southeast Asia, having long been confronted with dual pressures from economic development and ecological conservation. By analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) during 2003–2023, this study simulates its multi-scenario dynamics, develops the “RSEI-ESP-PLUS” framework, presents a novel assessment mechanism for ecological security patterns (ESP), and provides a scientific basis for regional sustainable development. Results indicate that integrating RSEI improves the accuracy of ecological source identification. Over the past two decades, regional Ecological Environmental Quality has exhibited an overall improvement trend, yet persistent ecological pressures remain—including vegetation degradation and climate warming. Concurrently, high-quality ecological areas have contracted while moderate-quality ones have expanded. In the 2033 simulation, the ecological conservation scenario delivered the most favorable ecological network assessment outcomes, identifying 16 stable and 15 potential ecological sources. Accordingly, this study establishes an ecological security pattern centered on the core structure of the “One Axis, Two Corridors, and Three Zones”, which provides a spatial planning scheme for regional sustainable development.