Low-Carbon Agriculture (ABC) Credit and Pasture Restoration in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Low-carbon agriculture (ABC—from the acronym in Portuguese) encompasses techniques that reduce carbon emissions while maintaining productivity and profitability. Among these, the restoration of degraded pastures is a major focus of the Brazilian ABC policy, achieved through improved pasture management or crop–livestock integration. This study analyzed the relationship between ABC credit and improvements in pasture vigor in the municipalities of Minas Gerais from 2015 to 2022, considering the carbon-mitigation potential of each region. We evaluated whether credit resources were directed toward areas with greater mitigation potential and whether this investment contributed to pasture recovery. Composite indexes were developed to represent credit investment, pasture dynamics, and theoretical carbon removal potential, followed by spatial mapping and correlation analysis. The results show that ABC credit was strongly concentrated in regions with high carbon-sequestration potential, especially Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba, indicating a generally effective targeting of resources toward areas with greater mitigation potential. Correlation analysis also indicates a positive, although moderate, association between credit volume and pasture improvement at the municipal level. Although initial results indicated more substantial improvements in pasture vigor in lower-credit regions such as North of Minas, Jequitinhonha, and Mucuri Valley (with relative increases reaching up to 300%), an additional analysis considering the initial vigor level (baseline) revealed that these gains are strongly affected by initial pasture conditions. From a policy perspective, these findings highlight the importance of rural credit as a driver of sustainable technology adoption, while also showing that baseline conditions, technical assistance, and other public or private incentives can significantly influence restoration outcomes. Strengthening credit allocation criteria, improving technical support, and integrating carbon-mitigation indicators into regional planning could enhance environmental effectiveness.