Divergent Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Dynamics Across Land Use Types in Hunan Province, China

Terrestrial ecosystems in Hunan Province have undergone marked yet spatially heterogeneous vegetation changes under concurrent climate change and intensifying human activities. The aim of this study is to resolve how vegetation responses vary among land-use types by quantifying kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) dynamics during 2000–2023 using precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, coupled with trend analysis and a partial-derivative-based attribution. Mean kNDVI increased overall at 0.0016 yr −1 ; vegetation improved over 76.30% of the area, whereas 5.72% of the area experienced degradation. Built-up land exhibited the largest degraded fraction (35.04%). Human activities and temperature emerged as the dominant drivers of kNDVI change, contributing 62.25% and 27.92%, respectively, while precipitation (3.08%) and solar radiation (6.77%) played comparatively minor roles. Spatially, human activities primarily controlled vegetation dynamics in plains and urban clusters (~78% of the area), whereas temperature constrained vegetation in high-elevation mountain ranges. Analysis along the human footprint (HFP) gradient reveals that driver composition remains steady in resilient ecosystems (farmland and forest), despite increasing anthropogenic pressure, whereas fragile ecosystems (grassland and bareland) exhibited pronounced volatility and heightened sensitivity to environmental constraints. These findings provide a quantitative basis for developing sustainable ecological security strategies, incorporating region-specific measures such as adaptive afforestation, sustainable agricultural management, and strict ecological protection, to enhance ecosystem resilience by prioritizing the climate resilience of mountain forests and the stability of fragile grassland systems.