Spatial Effects of New Urbanization, Industrial Structure Upgrading, and Farmers’ Income: A Case Study of Northeast China

With the steady of new-type urbanization, the urban–rural income gap has become an increasingly prominent issue in China. Nevertheless, limited attention has been paid to the spatial relationships among new-type urbanization, industrial structure upgrading, and farmers’ income in Northeast China. Taking Northeast China as the research area, this study constructs a multidimensional evaluation index for new-type urbanization and employs data panels spanning 34 regional areas spanning the years from 2012 to 2023. The Statistical Durbin Model is used to examine both the direct and spatial spillover effects of new-type urbanization on farmers’ income, while the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading is further explored. The empirical findings indicate that: (1) cities with relatively higher farmers’ income levels and more advanced new-type urbanization are mainly concentrated in Liaoning Province; (2) new-type urbanization significantly contributes to the growth of farmers’ income; (3) new-type urbanization exerts positive spatial spillover effects on farmers’ income in surrounding regions; (4) industrial structure upgrading serves as an important transmission channel through which new-type urbanization enhances farmers’ income; and (5) among the control variables, fiscal support for agriculture and the degree of agricultural economic growth exerts large beneficial influence on farmers’ income. These results provide empirical and theoretical support for promoting new-type urbanization as an effective approach to narrowing the urban–rural income gap and increasing farmers’ earnings. Accordingly, policy efforts should focus on accelerating the advancement of new-type urbanization in Northeast China, strengthening infrastructure development and the provision of public services, optimising industrial structures to enhance employment absorption capacity, expanding farmers’ income sources, and fostering coordinated and sustainable urban–rural development across the region.