Cultural–Tourism Integration and People’s Livelihood and Well-Being in China’s Yellow River Basin: Dynamic Panel Evidence and Spatial Spillovers (2011–2023)

Despite its rich cultural heritage, the Yellow River Basin (YRB) faces challenges of ecological fragility and unbalanced development that constrain residents’ welfare improvement. Cultural–tourism integration (CTI)—aimed at creating employment, optimizing industrial structure, and improving public services—is increasingly promoted as a pathway to enhance people’s livelihood and well-being (PLW). Grounded in industrial integration theory and welfare economics, this study examined the impact effects, transmission mechanisms, and spatial spillovers of CTI on PLW. Panel data from 75 prefecture-level cities in the YRB, spanning 2011 to 2023, were utilized, and multi-dimensional indices were constructed for both CTI and PLW. Impact effects, mediating mechanisms, and spatial spillovers were examined through kernel density estimation, a dynamic system generalized-method-of-moments (SYS-GMM) model, mediation analysis, and a spatial Durbin model (SDM). The results showed that CTI and PLW both improved over time and displayed a spatial pattern of “midstream and downstream leading, upstream lagging”. CTI significantly promoted PLW, after controlling for dynamics and endogeneity (SYS-GMM coefficient = 0.130, p < 0.01). Industrial structure upgrading acted as a positive mediator, whereas digital infrastructure exhibited a short-term suppressing (negative mediating) effect, implying a phased mismatch between CTI investment priorities and digital input. Spatial estimates further indicated that CTI generated positive spillovers, improving PLW in neighboring cities, in addition to local gains. These findings suggest that basin-wide coordination and better alignment between CTI projects and digital infrastructure are essential for inclusive and sustainable well-being improvements, supporting regional progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals.