Analysis of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Driving Factors in the Manas River Basin, China, from 2000 to 2020

This study examined land-use/land-cover (LULC) change in the Manas River Basin from 2000 to 2020 due to rapid socioeconomic development. It aims to provide a scientific basis for protecting the ecological security of the river basin and achieving sustainable development of the land. The LULC data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 were utilized to establish the LULC transition matrix and calculate the LULC dynamics to analyze the dynamic evolution of LULC in the basin from 2000 to 2020. The PLUS model was constructed to explore the driving mechanism of the conversion between various land types in the basin. The key findings include the following. (1) From 2000 to 2010, grassland experienced the most significant reduction (3222.08 km 2 ), whereas farmland expanded the most (3126.77 km 2 ). (2) The most rapid expansion occurred in farmland (6.24%) and built-up areas (2.25%) in the 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 periods, respectively. Conversely, forest land showed the most rapid decrease, with −6.07% from 2000 to 2010, and −0.86% from 2010 to 2020. (3) The degree of influence of each driving factor on different LULC types (contribution degree) obtained by constructing the PLUS model shows that, during the twenty years, population was the predominant factor affecting farmland changes and built-up areas, with contribution degrees of 0.17 and 0.26, respectively. Temperature was the primary influencer of forest-land changes, with a contribution degree of 0.17, and elevation significantly impacted grassland changes, with a contribution degree of 0.21. This study provides crucial insights into the interaction between LULC dynamics and environmental and demographic factors in the Manas River Basin.