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Climate Change and the Potential Expansion of Rubus geoides Sm.: Toward Sustainable Conservation Strategies in Southern Patagonia

Author

Listed:
  • Ingrid Hebel

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Estefanía Jofré

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Christie V. Ulloa

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Inti González

    (Centro Estudios del Cuaternario, Centro Regional Fundacion CEQUA, Avenida España 184, Punta Arenas 6212375, Chile)

  • Ricardo Jaña

    (Chilean Antarctic Institute (INACH), Plaza Muñoz Gamero 1055, Punta Arenas 6200000, Chile)

  • Gonzalo Páez

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Margarita Cáceres

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Valeria Latorre

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Andrea Vera

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Luis Bahamonde

    (Plant Biotechnology Laboratory, Science Faculty, University of Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

  • Julio Yagello

    (Lothar Blunck Horticultural Center, Instituto de la Patagonia, Avenida Bulnes 01890, Punta Arenas 6213029, Chile)

Abstract

(1) Background: Rubus geoides Sm., a native species of southern Patagonia, faces increasing threats due to climate change and anthropogenic land-use changes. Historically widespread, its distribution has become restricted by overgrazing, urban expansion, extractive industries, and direct harvesting from natural populations driven by interest in its nutraceutical potential since the first European settlements. (2) Methods: To assess its resilience and conservation prospects, we analyzed the morphological variability, genetic diversity, and population structure, complemented by species distribution modeling under past and future climate scenarios. (3) Results: Our findings reveal moderate genetic differentiation and private alleles in specific populations, alongside significant variation in flowering phenology. Paternity analysis indicates a tendency toward self-pollination, although this conclusion is constrained by the limited number of microsatellite markers employed. These results suggest post-glacial dispersal patterns and highlight the species’ potential for expansion under certain climate scenarios. (4) Conclusions: This study provides critical insights for biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management, directly aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals SDG 15 (Life on Land). Indirectly, this study contributes to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by highlighting the importance of threatened species that hold value for human consumption and food security. Land-use changes, particularly mining and green hydrogen industry settlements, may represent stronger limitations to species expansion than climate change itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingrid Hebel & Estefanía Jofré & Christie V. Ulloa & Inti González & Ricardo Jaña & Gonzalo Páez & Margarita Cáceres & Valeria Latorre & Andrea Vera & Luis Bahamonde & Julio Yagello, 2026. "Climate Change and the Potential Expansion of Rubus geoides Sm.: Toward Sustainable Conservation Strategies in Southern Patagonia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-22, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:18:y:2026:i:1:p:444-:d:1831643
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