Multi-Year Dynamic Characteristics and Influence Factors of Groundwater Level for Different Karst Groundwater Systems in the Huaibei Region, China

The Huaibei region is a critical grain and energy–chemical base in northern China, characterized by substantial water demand for industrial and agricultural production. Karst groundwater systems constitute the primary water supply source in this area. Under the superimposed impacts of intensive exploitation, climate change, and anthropogenic activities, karst aquifers have encountered a series of geo-environmental problems, including groundwater level decline and expansion of cones of depression. Most previous studies have predominantly focused on water quality assessment and groundwater resource quantification, yet systematic investigations into the multi-scale characteristics and driving mechanisms of karst groundwater level dynamics remain insufficient. In this study, based on long-term groundwater level and rainfall monitoring data (2014–2024) from three monitoring wells representing different types of karst aquifers, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) approaches are introduced to identify the periodic patterns of karst groundwater levels and reveal the dominant controlling factors of groundwater level dynamics. The results demonstrate that groundwater levels in all types of karst aquifers exhibit distinct multi-scale periodic variations. The groundwater levels of HB01 and HB02 share dominant oscillation periods of 18~19 months and 9 months with regional rainfall, while the groundwater level at HB03 displays a more complex, multi-scale, periodic combination of 41 months, 18~19 months, and 9 months. Periodic variations in regional rainfall serve as the dominant controlling factor for the intra-annual and inter-annual periodic fluctuations of karst water levels, with a prominent resonance relationship identified between the two variables at dominant periodic scales. Distinct heterogeneity is observed in the response magnitude and lag time of different karst aquifer types to rainfall; specifically, the lag time of water level response to rainfall on the annual periodic scale ranges from 2.7 to 2.9 months. The correlation between annual average water level and pumping discharge is moderate for boreholes HB01 and HB03, whereas a strong correlation is detected for borehole HB02, implying that its water level regime is likely subjected to pronounced pumping disturbance. The degree of karst development, aquifer burial depth, and overlying stratum architecture are the key geological factors accounting for such heterogeneous response patterns. For the first time, this study utilizes long-term water level time series data from the karst water exploitation zone of the Huaibei Plain, complemented by synchronous precipitation and pumping records. Integrated with regional hydrogeological settings, wavelet analysis is employed to conduct an in-depth investigation into the dynamic variations in karst water levels in the Huaibei region from the perspective of groundwater recharge–discharge relationships. The results provide a scientific underpinning for the remediation of karst water over-exploitation and the optimal allocation of water resources. Specifically, pumping and artificial recharge schemes can be proactively adjusted based on periodicity forecasts. Zoned management strategies for water resources are put forward: artificial regulation and storage are recommended for zones with sensitive hydrological responses, while preventive protection is prioritized for zones with sluggish responses. By incorporating periodic characteristics and lag durations, targeted pumping strategies for dry and wet seasons can be developed, and a coupled water level–rainfall–pumping early warning system can be established to realize the long-term sustainable regulation of karst water resources.