Exploratory Data-Driven Modeling of Macroeconomic Indicators Associated with Sustainable Housing Affordability: A Comparative Analysis of Construction Economics in Poland

This article employs exploratory data-driven modeling to examine the relationships between selected macroeconomic indicators, residential property prices, and housing affordability pressures in Poland between 2020 and 2024. This turbulent period was selected for analysis because of the unprecedented volatility triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical shocks associated with the war in Ukraine, both of which severely disrupted macroeconomic stability and construction supply chains. The study examines how key economic variables—including inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment, and average and minimum wage dynamics—are associated with residential property price dynamics within the framework of construction economics. Using statistical modeling techniques, including linear regression and Pearson correlation analysis, the study quantifies the strength, direction, and dynamics of these relationships across primary and secondary housing sectors. Our findings reveal a distinct comparative pattern of associations: average wage growth and inflation emerge as the macroeconomic indicators most strongly associated with property valuations, while macroeconomic growth and unemployment dynamics exhibit asymmetric associations across market segments. Notably, the findings suggest that the primary sector may be more sensitive to credit-related demand shocks and policy interventions, whereas the secondary sector appears to respond more directly to broader consumer trends and household purchasing capacity. By integrating macroeconomic data into a sectoral analysis, this study provides an exploratory empirical basis for discussing sustainable housing strategies. The results underscore the necessity of aligning investment and production cycles in the construction sector with macroeconomic stability to maintain long-term residential purchasing capacity and support resilient urban development.