Sustainable Development Regimes, Transition Dynamics and Environmental Performance in the European Union

Sustainable development has become a strategic priority for the European Union in response to climate change, resource constraints and environmental degradation. Despite common policy objectives, Member States exhibit substantial differences in sustainability performance and transition capacities. This study investigates sustainable development pathways in the European Union using an integrated framework combining cluster analysis, transition analysis, panel econometrics and a conceptual Petri Net model. The empirical analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset covering the 27 EU Member States during the period 2015–2024. K-means clustering was employed to identify sustainable development regimes, transition matrices were used to evaluate regime persistence, and panel data models were estimated to examine the determinants of environmental performance measured through greenhouse gas emissions per capita. The results confirm the existence of four distinct sustainable development regimes characterized by different combinations of economic performance, environmental pressure and resource efficiency. Transition analysis confirms heterogeneous transition dynamics characterized by a generally high degree of regime persistence, while only a limited number of countries experienced regime changes during the study period. The econometric findings confirm that renewable energy deployment and resource productivity are the principal determinants associated with lower greenhouse gas emissions. Based on these results, a Petri Net framework was developed to represent alternative sustainability pathways and transition mechanisms. The integrated analytical framework confirms that combining sustainability regime identification, transition dynamics, panel econometric modelling and conceptual Petri Net representation provides a more comprehensive understanding of sustainable development pathways in the European Union. The findings provide relevant insights for policymakers seeking to support the transition towards more sustainable development trajectories in the European Union.