A Rebound-Aware Net-Reduction Accounting Framework for Sustainable Demand Response Measurement and Verification in Grid-Interactive Commercial Buildings

Commercial building demand response can support sustainable grid operation by providing demand-side flexibility for renewable-rich power systems; however, baseline-based measurement and verification usually report only event-period gross load reduction. Post-event rebound from heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, and lighting controls can cause gross-only reporting, resulting in overstating the net reduction at the building–grid interface. Standard baseline estimators have not been systematically evaluated in the post-event window. This study formulates a rebound-aware net-reduction accounting framework that reports the event-period gross reduction, post-event rebound, and rebound-adjusted net effect under the same eligible-day baseline structure. The framework was evaluated on the paired ComStock 2025 Release 2 Actual Meteorological Year 2018 profiles for commercial buildings in California, Texas, and New York with five baseline estimators and three rebound-window definitions. In a balanced 3960-building sample, the median true gross reduction was 62.7 kWh and the 2 h rebound was 5.49 kWh. The pooled median post-minus-event mean absolute error was −0.209 kWh per 15 min interval. The material gross-as-net reporting risk affected 70.9% of building-event-method cases, but rebound-aware net reporting was conditionally valuable rather than uniformly superior. These results show that rebound diagnostics can improve transparent and auditable demand response reporting for sustainable grid-interactive building programs.