Agricultural Support and Food Import Dependency in Developing Countries: Evidence from Continuous Treatment Effect Models

In this article, we analyze the relationship between agricultural support measures and food import dependency for a 52-country sample from 1985 to 2017 using databases from the World Bank, the Center for Systemic Peace, and the Groningen Center for Growth and Development. Using an instrumental variable framework, we apply a continuous treatment effect and control for endogeneity to describe the extent of food import dependency in response to domestic support for agriculture. Our results suggest heterogeneous associations for aggregate food import dependency at different levels of political aid intensity, while our analysis further reveals nonlinear dose–response patterns, suggesting that moderate levels of agricultural support are associated with lower food import dependency, whereas very high support intensities are not systematically associated with additional reductions. Although estimates of dose–response functions confirm that countries providing moderate support to agriculture tend to exhibit lower levels of agri-food import dependency, these findings should nevertheless be interpreted cautiously given the potential limitations regarding instrument validity and data availability. The primary contribution of our study is the explicit modeling of heterogeneous treatment intensity effects and potential endogeneity. These findings should therefore be interpreted as conditional empirical associations rather than definitive causal effects.