Spatial Patterns and Discriminative Features of Potential Rural Vulnerability Configurations in the Loess Hilly and Gully Region: A Case Study of Hancheng City, Shaanxi Province

With the continuing advancement of global environmental change and rapid urbanization, rural human settlements are facing multiple pressures, including ecological degradation, spatial decline, population outflow, and functional weakening. Based on the vulnerability analysis framework, studies on rural vulnerability provide an important perspective for assessing villages’ risk exposure, disturbance response, and functional degradation when coping with internal and external disturbances. However, existing studies often rely on single-dimensional or linearly weighted evaluations, making it difficult to comprehensively reveal the coupling relationships among multiple discriminative variables and the spatial differentiation patterns of vulnerability. Taking rural areas in Hancheng City, Shaanxi Province, as the research object, this study selects 12 indicators from three dimensions—natural ecological constraints, settlement spatial organization, and public service support—to provide proxy representations of conditions related to potential rural vulnerability. K-means clustering was used to identify potential vulnerability configuration types under multidimensional indicator combinations. A Python-based XGBoost model was then employed as an interpretable surrogate model to assist in characterizing the clustering boundaries, while SHAP analysis was used to explain the key discriminative variables associated with type membership. The results show that the potential rural vulnerability configurations in Hancheng City present a significant west–central–east spatial differentiation pattern. Elevation, village core density, topographic wetness index, distance to town centers, accessibility of daily service facilities, distance to major roads, and normalized difference vegetation index are the main discriminative variables distinguishing different potential vulnerability configuration types. Among them, village core density shows a particularly strong explanatory role. Different key discriminative variables also exhibit evident nonlinear response characteristics across different potential types. Under the indicator system and the K = 4 clustering scheme adopted in this study, the potential rural vulnerability configurations in Hancheng City can be summarized into four types: service-concentrated settlement type, complex terrain-constrained type, human–land coupling transitional type, and natural ecological isolation type. The findings reveal the spatial differentiation characteristics, variable combination relationships, and typological discriminative features of potential rural vulnerability configurations in Hancheng City. They can provide a case-based reference for identifying potential vulnerability, conducting spatial zoning diagnosis, and supporting classified governance in similar county-level rural areas within the loess hilly and gully region. In practical terms, this framework can serve as a diagnostic tool for local governments and planners in classified rural governance. It can be used to identify priority areas for public service and infrastructure investment, review key risk-control areas in complex terrain zones, delineate low-intensity use and protection boundaries in ecologically isolated areas, and guide differentiated resource allocation for different types of villages.