Integrating Smart Port System and Blue Economy Principles for the Sustainable Maritime Development of an Island Region in Indonesia: A Bayesian Network Approach

The global maritime sector is undergoing rapid transformation, creating an urgent need to align digital port technologies with a sustainable development framework. However, existing research on smart ports and the blue economy is fragmented and predominantly driven by deterministic approaches that overlook systemic complexity and uncertainty. This study develops a smart port system model grounded in blue economy principles, using a Bayesian network to analyze causal relationships among operational, environmental, and governance variables under uncertainty. The model incorporates key factors including port operational efficiency, logistics reliability, environmental compliance systems, coastal employment, and regulatory enforcement. The findings indicate that operational and logistical factors are the primary drivers of the system, while environmental and socioeconomic variables strongly shape sustainability outcomes. Scenario analysis shows that coordinated interventions targeting these key variables generate the greatest improvements in Smart Port–Blue Economy integration. Sensitivity analysis further identifies coastal economic output, regional competitiveness, and marine ecosystem health as the most responsive outcome variables. The research offers lessons for policymakers to enhance port management by integrating logistics and technological considerations with blue economy principles to design adaptive and resilient policies, particularly in island regions.