Desertification Safety Levels Assessment by Geospatial Methods in the Uzbekistan Part of the Khorezm Oasis

Desertification is a serious environmental challenge in regions with desert landscapes, such as the Khorezm Oasis in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Low precipitation rates and shortages of irrigation water have driven dynamic changes in desert-related land use and land cover (LULC) classes, threatening environmental and food security. This study aims to assess desertification safety levels in the Khorezm oasis using geospatial technologies to better understand spatiotemporal dynamics and to support sustainable agricultural management. A multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach was used for desertification assessment. Annual mean values of key indicators—land surface temperature, vegetation index, groundwater (GW) depth, wind speed, soil erodibility (K-factor), precipitation, normalized enhanced sand index, maximum air temperature, and LULC classes—were analyzed for the period 2000–2023. The results indicate that the normalized enhanced sand index and LULC classes exert the strongest influence on desertification processes. Areas classified as high to very high desertification hazard are predominantly concentrated in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, covering a total area of 2345.65 km 2 . Ongoing water shortages in the Amu Darya River basin pose a significant risk of further expansion of desertified areas. The findings provide valuable insights for regional land management and desertification mitigation planning.