Can the Low-Altitude Economy Drive Synergistic Development of Carbon Reduction, Pollution Mitigation, Green Transition, and Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from China

As an emerging technology-intensive industry, the low-altitude economy (hereafter LAE) has attracted growing attention for its potential contribution to sustainable development. However, little is known about whether its expansion can simultaneously promote environmental improvement and economic growth. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2023, this study examines the relationship between the LAE and the synergistic development of carbon reduction, pollution mitigation, green transition, and economic growth (hereafter CPGE). Green technological innovation (hereafter GT) is incorporated as a mediating variable, while artificial intelligence (hereafter AI) is introduced as both a moderating and a threshold variable to explore the underlying mechanisms and nonlinear effects. The results show that the LAE is significantly and positively associated with CPGE. GT exhibits a significant negative mediating effect, suggesting that the benefits of green innovation may not yet have been fully translated into coordinated green development outcomes during the sample period. AI not only strengthens the positive association between the LAE and CPGE but also exhibits a significant threshold effect. The contribution of the LAE becomes substantially stronger once AI development surpasses a critical level, highlighting the important role of digital intelligence in amplifying the environmental benefits of emerging industries. In addition, the impact of the LAE displays pronounced regional heterogeneity, with stronger effects observed in non-resource-based and non-central regions. This study contributes to the literature by revealing that the environmental effects of the LAE depend not only on innovation channels but also on the level of digital intelligence development. AI serves as a critical enabling condition for translating the growth potential of the LAE into coordinated green development. By revealing the mediating role of GT and the moderating and threshold effects of AI, this study provides new evidence on how emerging industries contribute to sustainable development. The findings underscore the importance of aligning LAE development with AI-driven digital transformation to advance sustainable regional development.