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Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region

Author

Listed:
  • Xiangfei Wang

    (School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China)

  • Tingting Yan

    (School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China)

  • Weijun Zhao

    (School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China)

  • Junyi Hua

    (School of International Affairs and Public Administration, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China)

  • Danhong Zhu

    (China IPPR International Engineering Co., Ltd., Beijing 100089, China)

  • Qing Yu

    (School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China)

  • Yuefeng Lu

    (School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China)

  • Yu’ang Wu

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Putra Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur 43400, Malaysia)

Abstract

Extreme heatwaves threaten public health and economies. Using multi-source data from 1964–2023 and the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), we identified heatwaves and, with a generalized linear mixed model and Hurst-based intensity forecasting, assessed drivers and future trends across Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions. (1) Duration, frequency, and the number of events increased by 18.7 days, 21.2 days, and 5.5 events, respectively. During the 2004–2023 period, HWD, HWF, and HWN accelerated, expanding from South Asia/Middle East to Central Asia, the Caucasus, and North Asia. In 1994–2023, centroids shifted west/south: frequency 2.54° W, 1.83° S; and intensity 1.17° W, 2.79° S. (2) Between 2000 and 2019, interaction effects exceeded single effects; dominant drivers shifted from SPEI and wind speed to shortwave radiation and NDVI. (3) Future intensification peaks in East Asia, the Iranian Plateau, and China’s east coast; with H ≥ 0.7, enhanced areas exceed 33% (max 37%), concentrated in Central and western West Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiangfei Wang & Tingting Yan & Weijun Zhao & Junyi Hua & Danhong Zhu & Qing Yu & Yuefeng Lu & Yu’ang Wu, 2026. "Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:18:y:2026:i:13:p:6777-:d:1982772
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