Spatiotemporal Carbon Emission Characteristics and Sustainable Reduction Strategies for Road Networks: A Simulation of Targeted Road-Segment Control and Vehicle Electrification

Global climate change poses a critical challenge to sustainable urban development. The construction of low-carbon transportation systems is therefore a core strategy for enhancing the sustainability of mega-city road networks. Combining the characteristics of urban road traffic networks, this paper establishes a method for vehicle trip segmentation and carbon emission estimation based on GPS trajectory data (5699 vehicles, Beijing, September 2019) and the COPERT emission model, analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of vehicle emissions. By incorporating the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) emissions of electric vehicles, this study proposes carbon reduction strategies based on stochastic selection and ranking-based optimization from two dimensions: road-segment and vehicle electrification. Simulation methods are employed to evaluate the effectiveness of different strategies, as well as road network carbon emissions, under four vehicle electrification structures: Pyramid, Inverted Pyramid, Olive, and Dumbbell. Results indicate that carbon emission intensity rises significantly due to traffic congestion during peak hours. Under the LCA framework, Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) show significantly lower emissions than traditional Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs). Under the specified scenario assumptions, the ranking-based optimization scheme is estimated to yield carbon reductions approximately 2 times (segment control) and 3 times (electrification) those of the stochastic selection scheme, respectively. The study concludes that integrating EV promotion policies with precise carbon reduction control strategies can effectively mitigate urban road network carbon emissions.