From Marine Natural Capital Valuation to Fiscal Integrity: A Governance Design for Blue Natural Capital Value at Risk in Indonesia

Marine ecosystem degradation may reduce state revenues, increase recovery spending, and weaken fiscal sustainability, yet Indonesia does not yet have a routine governance mechanism that links marine natural capital valuation to fiscal-risk assessment in the State Budget Financial Note. This article develops a governance design, Blue Natural Capital Value at Risk (BNC-VaR), to translate changes in marine ecosystem conditions into fiscal-exposure signals for Indonesian public finance. Ecological condition indicators, such as fish-stock status, coral-reef condition, and mangrove extent, are converted into traceable valuation parameters and then into structured outputs, including fiscal-exposure scenarios, budget-relevance notes, and medium-term fiscal-sustainability readings across revenue, expenditure, deficit, and financing channels. The design treats ecological change as affecting the fiscal position through mediated and disclosable pathways rather than automatic causal effects. It adapts Value at Risk as a risk logic for public fiscal governance rather than as a conventional market-based probabilistic measure. Using theory synthesis and a model-paper approach across six analytical stages, the study produces five design principles, four formal propositions, and a five-component institutional architecture, with the Directorate General of State Assets Management positioned as a valuation custodian. As a conceptual contribution, BNC-VaR offers an operational architecture and implementation roadmap for future empirical testing in Indonesia and other archipelagic or marine-resource-dependent fiscal systems.