Toward Sustainable Intensification: The Impact of the Chemical-Fertilizer-Use Zero-Growth Policy on Grain Production in China

Sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA) aims to increase agricultural output while reducing or not increasing negative environmental impacts, yet evidence on the production effects of reduced chemical inputs remains limited. To narrow this gap, this study examines how SIA impacts grain production by treating China’s “Chemical Fertilizer Use Zero-Growth Policy” (Zero-Growth Policy) as a natural experiment, by using provincial-level data from 2008 to 2022. The study indicates the following: Firstly, the policy exerted no negative impact on grain production and even boosted grain production. Secondly, this production grain operated mainly through an increased grain sown-area share and higher cropping intensity, while yield per unit area remained statistically unchanged. Thirdly, heterogeneity analysis suggests that the positive association between the policy and grain production is relatively stronger in non-main grain production areas than in main grain production areas. These findings provide preliminary evidence that policy-oriented sustainable intensification may be compatible with grain output growth in the sample period.